Chinese robotics outlook for 2026 includes cobot growth, competitive pressure

Primarily based on our information, Chinese language industrial robotic gross sales once more in 2025 by roughly 10%. With different main markets comparatively weaker, China additional cemented its prime place in world robotic gross sales. For 2026, we’re cautiously optimistic and count on mid- to high-single-digit progress.

Gross sales of collaborative robots in China have outpaced the broader market over the previous two years — and there are sturdy indications that this pattern will proceed. Key drivers embody simpler set up, excessive flexibility, comparatively low vitality consumption, and new functions, notably in electric-vehicle manufacturing.

Intense value stress — and the consolidation that comes with it — will persist. On the similar time, we see each industrial robots and cobots trending towards extra “clever” options as a way of differentiation, equivalent to semi-autonomous welding.

After China’s industrial robotic exports grew by a mean of about 65% per yr from 2022 to 2024, that momentum continued in 2025. Whereas full-year 2025 figures are usually not but obtainable, export ranges had already surpassed the prior yr’s complete by the tip of the third quarter. We count on this trajectory to proceed into 2026.

Extra Chinese language capital flows into embodied AI

China is shifting alongside to the U.S. the forefront of improvement in bodily AI. By our estimates, funding in early-stage robotics firms in each the U.S. and China in 2025 was roughly 5 to 6 instances larger than in Europe.

In China alone, we see no less than 5 embodied AI firms which have every raised greater than $210 million so far, and capital continues to move aggressively into the house: On Jan. 12, X Sq. introduced it had raised RMB 1 billion (about $140 million) in an A++ spherical led by ByteDance and HongShan Capital (previously Sequoia China). Meituan and Alibaba had participated in earlier rounds. In simply two years, X Sq. has raised greater than $400 million.

X Sq. is pursuing what founder Wang Qian calls “an unbiased basis mannequin for embodied AI.” The core thesis: AI designed for the bodily world requires completely different architectures than language fashions.

In response to the corporate, its WALL‑A system not solely processes visible inputs, however it will possibly additionally “perceive” causal bodily relationships — enabling robots, for instance, to deduce hidden objects and autonomously appropriate errors with out human intervention.

Many within the West have primarily been watching U.S. efforts equivalent to Open‑X‑Embodiment, NVIDIA GR00T, or Amazon Vulcan. Nonetheless, China is more and more producing approaches which are equal — and in some circumstances complementary — alongside the identical trajectory towards “bodily intelligence.”

The differentiator is much less a couple of essentially completely different stack, and extra in regards to the constant mixture of large-scale embodiment datasets, end-to-end vision-language-action (VLA) fashions, and the systematic coupling of high-level planning with strong, contact-rich execution. These are exactly the constructing blocks that separate a compelling demo from a dependable deployment.

The Quanta robotic is meant to supply a path to humanoids within the family. Supply: X Sq. Robotic

Expertise is leaving the lab — pilots should ship financial worth

For humanoid robots and bodily AI in China, we count on a shift in 2026 away from headline-grabbing spectacles and towards actual functions with business worth. Traders are demanding it.

The anticipated IPO of Unitree in 2026 may change into one of many bigger Chinese language robotics tech listings in a while, with extra more likely to observe. On the similar time, consolidation will speed up as weaker gamers fall away.

Whereas U.S. firms equivalent to Bodily Intelligence, Skild.ai, and Google Gemini Robotics nonetheless lead on generalization, Chinese language suppliers like X Sq., TARS, AgiBot, Galaxea, and Galbot may gain advantage from providing full-stack programs constructed round clearly outlined duties. This permits quicker iteration cycles, larger reliability, and higher price/efficiency — as a result of each element is optimized as a part of a tightly built-in system.

Excessive-quality, real-world information is gas

Chinese language firms are additionally leaning tougher into real-world operational information to enhance their fashions.

On Dec. 30, 2025, the startup TARS Robotics — based about 11 months earlier — released its open “World in Your Arms” dataset. Much like the autonomous driving playbook, the corporate argues that high-quality, human-centric information is the vital gas for bodily AI.

In response to TARS, its information assortment strategy can generate as much as 1.8 TB per operator, per day of high-precision 6D movement information. The corporate says this helped elevate robotic success charges on complicated manipulation duties in unstructured environments from about 8% to about 60%.

Chinese language robotics startups have raised important funding prior to now few years. Supply: STM Stieler

Openness and community results as a Chinese language platform technique

On Jan. 4, Galaxea Dynamics launched its G0 Plus with an out-of-the-box VLA mannequin. The corporate now ships its cellular dual-arm robots with a pre-installed, overtly obtainable VLA.

Within the “Choose Up Something” demo, it confirmed a full pipeline — understanding pure language, planning actions, and executing in the actual world — together with zero-shot functionality.

The system was skilled on the Galaxea Open-world Dataset (GOD), which incorporates real-world information from traditional greedy duties in addition to extra complicated interactions. The corporate stated its plug-and-play strategy permits builders to get the system working in beneath half-hour after which fine-tune it for brand spanking new duties.

This strategic positioning may assist Galaxea construct a platform function in AI-enabled robotic management over the medium to long run.

Hybrid type components matter extra for ROI calculations

Intralogistics use circumstances — alongside easy meeting and inspection duties — are among the many first functions that Chinese language makers of humanoids purpose to commercialize in 2026.

Notably, the Chinese language firms with the strongest AI fashions for two-arm manipulation are typically pragmatic in regards to the humanoid type issue: All of them even have wheeled robots of their portfolios.

In parallel, industrial robots will more and more profit from advances in VLA fashions — and there may be significant overlap with humanoid robotics. For instance, AgiBot demonstrated a system at an electronics producer in November by which robotic changeover time was diminished to a mean of 10 minutes utilizing a mix of teleoperation and reinforcement studying.

Though AgiBot is among the many best-funded Chinese language startups in bodily AI and likewise builds its personal humanoid robots, the pilot used robotic arms from Franka Robotics (previously Franka Emika).

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